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Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach

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Glenn Hoggarth
Steffen Sorensen
Lea Zicchino

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Abstract

This paper adopts a new approach to stress testing the UK banking system. We attempt to account for the dynamics between banks' write-offs and key macroeconomic variables, through conditioning our stress test on the historical correlation between the variables and allowing for feedback effects from credit risk to the macroeconomy. In contrast to most existing empirical stress testing work, this paper uses a direct measure of banks' fragility - the write-off to loan ratio. We find that both UK banks' total and corporate write-offs are significantly related to deviations of output from potential. Following an adverse output shock, total and corporate write-off ratios increase. Mortgage arrears, on the other hand, appear to be mainly dependent on household income gearing. The results suggest that, even if the most extreme economic stress conditions witnessed over the past two decades were repeated, the UK banking sector should remain robust.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 282.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:282

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  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Smith, Peter N & Wickens, Michael R, 2002. "Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lea Zicchino, 2006. "A Model Of Bank Capital, Lending And The Macroeconomy: Basel I Versus Basel Ii," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 50-77, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
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  7. Martin Summer & Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  8. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, . "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrea Cipollini & Giuseppe Missaglia, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 007, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Simona Castellani & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2008. "Indebtedness, macroeconomic conditions and banks’ loan losses: evidence from Italy," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08014, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]
  3. Renato Filosa, 2007. "Stress testing of the stability of the Italian banking system: a VAR approach," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0703, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 06/149, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonas Dovern & Carsten-Patrick Meier & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2008. "How Resilient is the German Banking System to Macroeconomic Shocks?," Kiel Working Papers 1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, 2008. "Credit risk and business cycle over different regimes," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 670, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier & Shubhasis Dey, 2006. "Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector," Working Papers 06-47, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda & Diego M. Vásquez E., . "Un Análisis de Cointegración para el Riesgo de Crédito," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 035, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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