Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach
AbstractThis paper adopts a new approach to stress testing the UK banking system. We attempt to account for the dynamics between banks' write-offs and key macroeconomic variables, through conditioning our stress test on the historical correlation between the variables and allowing for feedback effects from credit risk to the macroeconomy. In contrast to most existing empirical stress testing work, this paper uses a direct measure of banks' fragility - the write-off to loan ratio. We find that both UK banks' total and corporate write-offs are significantly related to deviations of output from potential. Following an adverse output shock, total and corporate write-off ratios increase. Mortgage arrears, on the other hand, appear to be mainly dependent on household income gearing. The results suggest that, even if the most extreme economic stress conditions witnessed over the past two decades were repeated, the UK banking sector should remain robust.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 282.
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2006-09-30 (Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2006-09-30 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-09-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2006-09-30 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Ball, 1998.
"Policy Rules for Open Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006.
"Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
- Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, . "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Smith, Peter N & Wickens, Michael R, 2002.
"Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998.
"Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew P. Blake and Peter F. Westaway, .
"Credibility and the effectiveness of inflation targeting regimes,"
NIESR Discussion Papers
85, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
- Lea Zicchino, 2005.
"A model of bank capital, lending and the macro economy: Basel I versus Basel II,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005
88, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Lea Zicchino, 2006. "A Model Of Bank Capital, Lending And The Macroeconomy: Basel I Versus Basel Ii," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 50-77, 09.
- Lea Zicchino, 2005. "A model of bank capital, lending and the macroeconomy: Basel I versus Basel II," Bank of England working papers 270, Bank of England.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006.
"Risk Assessment for Banking Systems,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
- Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statistics
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Group).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.