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Macroeconomic Factors and the Balanced Value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange Rate (in English)

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Author Info
Jan Brůha () (Czech National Bank, Prague)
Alexis Derviz () (Czech National Bank, Charles University, and the Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Prague)

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Abstract

The authors study the dependence of the Czech koruna’s exchange rate to the euro on risk factors that cannot be reduced to standard macroeconomic fundamentals. For this purpose, they construct an international asset-pricing model in which the exchange rate is codetermined by a risk factor imperfectly correlated with other priced risks in the economy. The model embeds the standard no-arbitrage setup. It also contains an additional equation that links the autarchic currency price with the foreign-exchange order flow. In the state-space form, the unobserved variables that determine the dynamics of the asset markets, the autarchic exchange rate, and the FX order flow span a number of macroeconomic and latent risk factors. The model for the Czech koruna/euro exchange rate uses Kalman filter techniques. The results indicate the existence of a “non-fundamental” source of systematic divergence between the observed and the autarchic (i.e. fundamental) FX returns.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2006)
Issue (Month): 7-8 (July)
Pages: 318-343
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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:56:y:2006:i:7-8:p:318-343

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rate; latent risk; order flow; pricing kernel; state space;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
    Other versions:
  4. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2003. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception," CEPR Discussion Papers 3725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alexis Derviz, 2004. "Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 314, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Smith, Peter N & Wickens, Michael R, 2002. "Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Flavin, T. J. & Wickens, M. R., 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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