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Empirical Tests of Interest Rate Model Pricing Kernels

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  • Joshua Rosenberg

Abstract

This paper estimates and tests consumption-based pricing kernels used in common equilibrium interest rate term structure models. In contrast to previous papers that use return orthogonality conditions, estimation in this paper is accomplished using moment conditions from a consumption-based option pricing equation and market prices of interest rate options. This methodology is more sensitive to preference misspecification over states associated with large changes in consumption than previous techniques. In addition, this methodology provides a large set of natural moment conditions to use in estimation and testing compared to an arbitrary choice of return orthogonality conditions (e.g. instruments selected) used in GMM estimation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 99-015.

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Date of creation: May 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:99-015

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Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
Phone: (212) 998-0100
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
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References

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  1. Jacob Boudoukh, 1993. "An equilibrium model of nominal bond prices with inflation-output correlation and stochastic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 636-680.
  2. Campbell, John, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," Scholarly Articles 3122544, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  5. Boudoukh, Jacob, 1993. "An Equilibrium Model of Nominal Bond Prices with Inflation-Output Correlation and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 636-65, August.
  6. Wilcox, David W, 1992. "The Construction of U.S. Consumption Data: Some Facts and Their Implications for Empirical Work," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 922-41, September.
  7. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
  8. Chapman, David A, 1997. " Approximating the Asset Pricing Kernel," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1383-1410, September.
  9. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hansen, Lars Peter & Tauchen, George, 1990. "Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 141-179.
  10. Amin, Kaushik I & Ng, Victor K, 1997. "Inferring Future Volatility from the Information in Implied Volatility in Eurodollar Options: A New Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 333-67.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  12. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May.
  13. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
  14. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1996. "Reconciling the term structure of interest rates with the consumption-based ICAP model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 709-750, April.
  15. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 4088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
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  20. Ferson, Wayne E., 1983. "Expectations of Real Interest Rates and Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 477-497, December.
  21. Bansal, Ravi & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1231-62, September.
  22. Brennan, M J, 1979. "The Pricing of Contingent Claims in Discrete Time Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 53-68, March.
  23. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September.
  24. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
  25. Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
  26. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  27. Stapleton, Richard C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1984. " The Valuation of Multivariate Contingent Claims in Discrete Time Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 207-28, March.
  28. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52.
  29. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
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Cited by:
  1. Grace Kuan, 2000. "Recovering Local Volatility Functions Of Forward Libor Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 255, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Joshua Rosenberg, 2000. "Asset Pricing Puzzles: Evidence from Options Markets," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-025, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.

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