Option Hedging Using Empirical Pricing Kernels
AbstractThis paper develops a method for option hedging which is consistent with time-varying preferences and probabilities. The preferences are expressed in the form of an empirical pricing kernel (EPK), which measures the state price per unit probability, while probabilities are derived from an estimated stochastic volatility model of the form GARCH components with leverage. State prices are estimated using the flexible risk-neutral density method of Rosenberg (1995) and a daily cross-section of option premia. Time-varying preferences over states are linked to a dynamic model of the underlying price to obtain a one-day ahead forecast of derivative price distributions and minimum variance hedge ratios. Empirical results suggest that risk aversion over S&P500 return states is substantially higher than risk aversion implied by Black-Scholes state prices and probabilities using long run estimates of S&P500 return moments. It is also found that the daily level of risk aversion is strongly positively autocorrelated, negatively correlated with S&P500 price changes,and positively correlated with the spread between implied and objective volatilities. Hedging results reveal that typical hedging techniques for out-of-the-money S&P500 index options, such as Black-Scholes or historical minimum variance hedging, are inferior to the EPK hedging method. Thus, time-varying preferences and probabilities appear to be an important factor in the day-to-day pricing of S&P500 options.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6222.
Date of creation: Oct 1997
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rosenberg, Joshua V., 1998.
"Pricing multivariate contingent claims using estimated risk-neutral density functions,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 229-247, April.
- Joshua Rosenberg, 1997. "Pricing Multivariate Contingent Claims using Estimated Risk-neutral Density Functions," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-057, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Joshua Rosenberg, 1996. "Pricing Multivariate Contingent Claims Using Estimated Risk-neutral Density Functions," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-36, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
- John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1993.
"Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics,"
NBER Working Papers
4088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Russell P. Robins & Barry Schachter, 1994. "An Analysis of the Risk in Discretely Rebalanced Option Hedges and Delta-Based Techniques," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(6), pages 798-808, June.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Hansen, Lars Peter & Tauchen, George, 1990. "Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 141-179.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990.
"Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Stapleton, Richard C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1984. " The Valuation of Options When Asset Returns Are Generated by a Binomial Process," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1525-39, December.
- Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
- Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 5500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brennan, M J, 1979. "The Pricing of Contingent Claims in Discrete Time Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 53-68, March.
- Dumas, Bernard J & Fleming, Jeff & Whaley, Robert E, 1996. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," CEPR Discussion Papers 1369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2001.
"Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.
- Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," FMG Discussion Papers dp397, Financial Markets Group.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000.
"Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 1998. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Finance 9803002, EconWPA.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth., 1996. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-265, University of California at Berkeley.
- V. L. Martin & G. M. Martin & G. C. Lim, 2005.
"Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 377-404.
- G.C. Lim & G.M. Martin & V.L. Martin, 2002. "Parametric Pricing of Higher Order Moments in S&P500 Options," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Lim, G.C. & Martin, G.M. & Martin, V.L., 2006. "Pricing currency options in the presence of time-varying volatility and non-normalities," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-314, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.