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Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies

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  • Poghosyan, Tigran

Abstract

We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980–2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of the cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in the potential growth rate. In the short run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe-haven” flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 38 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 100-114

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:38:y:2014:i:1:p:100-114

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Keywords: Advanced economies; Government bond yields; Long-run and short-run determinants; Panel cointegration; Public debt;

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Cited by:
  1. Bruno Albuquerque & Ursel Baumann & Georgi Krustev, 2014. "Has US Household Deleveraging Ended? A Model-Based Estimate of Equilibrium Debt," Working Papers w201404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 13/159, International Monetary Fund.

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