We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960 - 2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the equity risk premium, and the other is through the volatility of returns. We provide support for previous findings based on simple correlation analysis that the relation is asymmetric with downturns in the business cycle having a greater negative impact on stock returns than the positive effect of upturns. We also obtain a new result, that demand and supply shocks affect stock returns differently. We find that negative supply shocks are a very important source of increases in the risk premium. Our model of the relation between returns and their volatility encompasses the CAPM and the results demonstrate the importance of allowing for a time-varying price of volatility risk. The model is implemented using a multi-variate GARCH-in-mean model with an asymmetric time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity and correlation structure.
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number
07/11.
Length: Date of creation: May 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:07/11
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom Phone: (0)1904 433776 Fax: (0)1904 433759 Email: Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/econ/ More information through EDIRC
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Find related papers by JEL classification: G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 1999.
"Nonlinear risk,"
Staff Reports
61, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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