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Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies

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Balázs Égert ()

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Abstract

This paper analyses the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey using the event study approach. Interventions are found to be effective only in the short run when they ease appreciation pressures. Central bank communication and interest rate steps considerably enhance their effectiveness. The observed effect of interventions on the exchange rate corresponds to the declared objectives of the central banks of Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and perhaps also Romania, whereas this is only partially true for Slovakia and Turkey. Finally, interventions are mostly sterilized in all countries except Croatia. Interventions are not much more effective in Croatia than in the other countries studied. This suggests that unsterilized interventions do not automatically influence the exchange rate.

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Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1869.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1869

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Keywords: central bank intervention foreign exchange intervention verbal intervention central bank communication Central and Eastern Europe Turkey

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches," Working Paper Series 528, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy : A Post-Crisis Period Analysis," Working Papers 0506, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gabriele Galati & Piti Disyatat, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna," BIS Working Papers 172, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hali Edison & Paul Cashin & Hong Liang, 2006. "Foreign exchange intervention and the Australian dollar: has it mattered?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 155-171. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Áron Gereben & György Gyomai & Norbert Kiss M., 2006. "Customer order flow, information and liquidity on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," MNB Working Papers 2006/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rasmus Fatum, 2005. "Daily Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada Data," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-07, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0505, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  11. Adam Geršl & Tomáš Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
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  12. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  14. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Zsolt Ersek, 2005. "Defending the strong side of the band - the Hungarian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 171-76 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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