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How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel

Abstract

The paper analyses whether communication and actual interventions in FX markets are successful in moving exchange rates over the medium- to long-run. It compares empirical evidence based on time-series analysis with that obtained from an eventstudy approach. Both the time-series approach based on option contracts and the event-study methodology yield compelling evidence that communication and actual interventions tend to be successful in moving exchange rates in the desired direction contemporaneously as well as over the medium- to long term. This finding is consistent with recent work on microstructure models that emphasises the importance of dynamic effects of news and fundamentals on exchange rates. JEL Classification: C23, E41, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches," Working Paper Series 528, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005528
    Note: 335955
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp528.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. "Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
    5. Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1820, October.
    6. Taylor, Mark, 2003. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Prabheesh, K. P. & Kumar, Sanjiv, 2022. "How Do the Financial Markets Respond to Emerging Economies’ Asset Purchase Program? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 1314, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
    3. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
    4. Michael Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2011. "What matters when? The impact of ECB communication on financial market expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4289-4309.
    5. Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
    6. Chih-Nan Chen & Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2012. "A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1507-1533, December.
    7. Dražen Koški, 2018. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions in the Republic of Croatia: The Event Study," Occasional Publications, in: Financije teorija i suvremena pitanja = Finance - theory and contemporary issues, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 229-251, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics.
    8. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    9. Bal??zs ??gert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective, and through Which Channel Does It Work?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, November.
    11. Balázs Égert, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 655-677, November.
    12. He Li & Zhixiang Yu & Chuanjie Zhang & Zhuang Zhang, 2017. "Determination of China’s foreign exchange intervention: evidence from the Yuan/Dollar market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 62-81, March.
    13. Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June.
    14. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:134:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    16. Gabriela Contreras M. & Alfredo Pistelli M. & Camila Sáez M., 2013. "Efecto de Intervenciones Cambiarias Recientes en Economías Emergentes," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 122-137, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    communication; euro area; event-study methodology; exchange rate; intervention; Japan; policy; time-series analysis; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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