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Foreign Exchange Interventions and Interest Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in Glove?

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  • Balazs Egert
  • Lubos Komarek

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of daily official foreign exchange interventions on the Czech koruna's exchange rate vis-a-vis the euro (the German mark prior to 1999) from 1997 to 2002. Both the event study methodology, extended with official interest rate moves, and a variety of GARCH models reveal that central bank interventions, especially koruna purchases, seem to have been relatively ineffective from 1997 to mid-1998 compared to the size of the interventions. From mid-1998 to 2002, however, koruna sales turn out to be effective in smoothing the path of the exchange rate up to 60 days. Nevertheless, the event study approach indicates that the success of FX interventions may be intimately related to the coordination of intervention and interest rate policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2005/07.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2005/07

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Keywords: Central bank intervention; Czech Republic; event study; foreign exchange intervention; GARCH; interest rate policy; transition economies.;

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References

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  1. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison, 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gabriele Galati & Piti Disyatat, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna," BIS Working Papers 172, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Public Information: The Chilean Case," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  4. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  5. Aguilar, Javiera & Nydahl, Stefan, 2000. "Central bank intervention and exchange rates: the case of Sweden," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 303-322, December.
  6. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. repec:fth:sydnec:99-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
  9. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches," Working Paper Series 0528, European Central Bank.
  10. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kim, Suk-Joong & Kortian, Tro & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility -- Australian evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 381-405, December.
  12. Jeff M. Rogers & Pierre Siklos, 2001. "Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies: The Canadian and Australian Experience," Research Paper Series 57, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  13. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  14. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 0452, European Central Bank.
  15. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  16. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  17. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/95, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0505, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  19. Hong Liang & Paul Cashin & Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Australian Dollar," IMF Working Papers 03/99, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Holub, Tomáš, 2004. "Foreign exchange interventions under inflation targeting: the Czech Experience," Research Notes 17, Deutsche Bank Research.
  21. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy : A Post-Crisis Period Analysis," Working Papers 0506, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  22. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
  23. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  24. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2000. "Central bank interventions and exchange rates: an analysis with high frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 349-362, December.
  25. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Chionis, Dionysios P., 2004. "Foreign exchange market intervention: implications of publicly announced and secret intervention for the euro exchange rate and its volatility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 661-673, September.
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