Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ana Maria Herrera
  • Pinar Ozbay

Abstract

We examine central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets using a dynamic censored regression model. We allow the amount of purchase and sale interventions to depend nonlinearly upon lagged values of intervention and on measures of disorderly foreign exchange markets. Using data for the CBRT, we find persistence in interventions, which may suggest the presence of political costs and/or a signal of future monetary policy. We find strong evidence of nonnormality and heteroskedasticity in the Tobit model of the reaction function. Results using a robust estimator reveal the importance of considering these specification issues when modeling central bank intervention.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/discus/WP0501ENG.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0501.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0501

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Email:
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate; intervention; central bank; dynamic Tobit; CLAD;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Almekinders, G.J. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1994. "Daily Bundesbank and federal reserve interventions: Are they a reaction to changes in the level and volatility of the DM/$-rate?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152910, Tilburg University.
  2. Emma M. Iglesias & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2008. "Finite Sample Theory of QMLE in ARCH Models with Dynamics in the Mean Equation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 719-737, 07.
  3. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA.
  4. Jong, Robert & Herrera, Ana María, 2011. "Dynamic Censored Regression and the Open Market Desk Reaction Function," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 228-237.
  5. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  6. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-21, November.
  7. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Technical analysis and the profitability of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-17.
  8. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E., 2005. "Exact Mean Integrated Squared Error Of Higher Order Kernel Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1031-1057, December.
  10. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  11. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2002. "The determinants of foreign exchange intervention by central banks: evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 619-649, October.
  12. Almekinders, G.J. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73527, Tilburg University.
  13. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  14. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Deviations from daily uncovered interest rate parity and the role of intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 363-379, December.
  15. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  16. Owen F. Humpage, 1996. "U.S. intervention: assessing the probability of success," Working Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  17. Michael McKenzie, 2004. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility: Some Australian Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 59-74, 03.
  18. G.S. Maddala & Forrest D. Nelson, 1975. "Specification Errors in Limited Dependent Variable Models," NBER Working Papers 0096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Khan, Shakeeb & Powell, James L., 2001. "Two-step estimation of semiparametric censored regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 73-110, July.
  20. Takatoshi Ito & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2004. "What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function," NBER Working Papers 10456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mahalia Jackman, 2012. "Foreign exchange intervention in a small open economy with a long term peg," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2207-2219.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2012. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-498, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
  4. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoğlu, 2006. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions under a floating exchange rate regime for the Turkish economy: a post-crisis period analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1371-1388.
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Balazs Egert & Lubos Komarek, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Interest Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in Glove?," Working Papers 2005/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Analyzing CBRT's FOREX interventions using EGARCH (2001-2006)," MPRA Paper 20634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Fry-McKibbin, Renée A. & Wanaguru, Sumila, 2013. "Currency intervention: A case study of an emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 25-47.
  9. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Asymmetric information content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return: new evidence from the post-crisis data using arma-egarch-m modeling," MPRA Paper 19631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0505, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  11. Chen, Ho-Chyuan & Chang, Kuang-Liang & Yu, Shih-Ti, 2012. "Application of the Tobit model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity for foreign exchange market interventions," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 274-282.
  12. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience," MPRA Paper 19598, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gulhanim Kayatas).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.