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An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility: Some Australian Evidence

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  • Michael McKenzie
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    Abstract

    Arguably, market stability is one of the primary reasons behind government intervention in the foreign exchange market. Whether or not the authorities achieve this goal is an empirical matter and testing of this issue is made difficult by the fact that government intervention and exchange rate volatility may be jointly determined. In this paper, the extent to which volatility drives intervention is considered using PROBIT analysis. The results suggest that while support for the hypothesis exists, volatility on its own does not to provide enough information to allow us to accurately forecast government intervention. A modified GARCH model is then tested which incorporates the impact of government intervention in the mean and conditional variance equation. The evidence presented suggest that the dynamics of market are different on the days where the central bank is active in the market. Copyright 2004 University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd..

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Australian Economic Papers.

    Volume (Year): 43 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 1 (03)
    Pages: 59-74

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:43:y:2004:i:1:p:59-74

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    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X

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    Cited by:
    1. Chris Becker & Michael Sinclair, 2004. "Profitability of Reserve Bank Foreign Exchange Operations: Twenty Years After the Float," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0505, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan C. & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    4. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Cyril Minh Dao, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention by central banks bad news for debt markets?: A case of Reserve Bank of Australia's interventions 1986-2003," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 446-467, December.

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