IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i10p3389-d171598.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linkage Analysis among China’s Seven Emissions Trading Scheme Pilots

Author

Listed:
  • Xuedi Li

    (School of Economics & Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China
    Graduate School, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China)

  • Jie Ma

    (School of Economics & Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Zhu Chen

    (School of Economics & Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Haitao Zheng

    (School of Economics & Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the time-varying correlation among China’s seven emissions trading scheme markets. Correlation analysis shows a weak connection among these markets for the whole sample period, which spans from 9 June 2014 to 30 June 2017. The return rate series of the seven markets show the characteristics of a fat-tailed and skewed distribution, and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) residuals present a significant Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effect. Therefore, we adopt Vector Autoregression Generalized ARCH model with Dynamic Conditional Correlation (VAR-DCC-GARCH) to capture the time-varying correlation coefficients. The results of the VAR-DCC-GARCH show that the conditional correlation coefficients fluctuate fiercely over time. At some points, the different markets present a significant correlation with the value of the even peaks of the coefficient at 0.8, which indicates that these markets are closely connected. However, the connection between each market does not last long. According to the actual situation of China’s regional carbon emission markets, policy factors may explain most of the temporary, significant co-movement among markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuedi Li & Jie Ma & Zhu Chen & Haitao Zheng, 2018. "Linkage Analysis among China’s Seven Emissions Trading Scheme Pilots," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3389-:d:171598
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3389/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3389/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2015. "Oil price uncertainty and sectoral stock returns in China: A time-varying approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-321.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Nazifi, Fatemeh, 2013. "Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 434-445.
    4. Pauline Barrieu & Max Fehr, 2014. "Market-Consistent Modeling for Cap-and-Trade Schemes and Application to Option Pricing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 234-249, April.
    5. Gamba-Santamaria, Santiago & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hurtado-Guarin, Jorge Luis & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Stock market volatility spillovers: Evidence for Latin America," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 207-216.
    6. Klein, Tony, 2017. "Dynamic correlation of precious metals and flight-to-quality in developed markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 283-290.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Chkili, Walid, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and hedging effectiveness between gold and stock markets: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 22-34.
    9. Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
    10. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    11. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2017. "Dynamic linkages between developed and BRICS stock markets: Portfolio risk analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 26-33.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    13. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C., 2016. "Dynamic linkages among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock market in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 179-185.
    14. Singhal, Shelly & Ghosh, Sajal, 2016. "Returns and volatility linkages between international crude oil price, metal and other stock indices in India: Evidence from VAR-DCC-GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 276-288.
    15. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Carbon price forecasting with a novel hybrid ARIMA and least squares support vector machines methodology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 517-524.
    16. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2017. "Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 368-380.
    17. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    18. Cong, Ren & Lo, Alex Y., 2017. "Emission trading and carbon market performance in Shenzhen, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 414-425.
    19. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "Return transmission and asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil futures and oil equities: New DCC-MEGARCH analyses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 167-185.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaohua Song & Wen Zhang & Zeqi Ge & Siqi Huang & Yamin Huang & Sijia Xiong, 2022. "A Study of the Influencing Factors on the Carbon Emission Trading Price in China Based on the Improved Gray Relational Analysis Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Li, Meng & Gao, Yuning & Meng, Bo & Yang, Zhusong, 2021. "Managing the mitigation: Analysis of the effectiveness of target-based policies on China's provincial carbon emission and transfer," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Zhong Wang & Mingyu Wu & Shixiang Li & Changji Wang, 2021. "The Effect Evaluation of China’s Energy-Consuming Right Trading Policy: Empirical Analysis Based on PSM-DID," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, October.
    4. Shi, Yangyan & Feng, Yu & Zhang, Qi & Shuai, Jing & Niu, Jiangxin, 2023. "Does China's new energy vehicles supply chain stock market have risk spillovers? Evidence from raw material price effect on lithium batteries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    5. Cristi Spulbar & Jatin Trivedi & Ramona Birau & Tenea Cosmin Andrei & Abdullah Ejaz, 2019. "Estimating Volatility Spillovers, Dynamic Causal Linkages And International Contagion Patterns Between Developed Stock Markets: An Empirical Case Study For Usa, Canada, France And Uk," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 44-62, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2020. "Correlation and spillover effects between the US and international banking sectors: New evidence and implications for risk management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    3. Sarwar, Suleman & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Waheed, Rida & Dastgerdi, Hamidreza Ghorbani, 2019. "Volatility spillovers and hedging: Evidence from Asian oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-488.
    4. Chen, Yufeng & Xu, Jing & Hu, May, 2022. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between crude oil price, exchange rate and gold price in BRICS," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Ping, Li & Ziyi, Zhang & Tianna, Yang & Qingchao, Zeng, 2018. "The relationship among China’s fuel oil spot, futures and stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 151-162.
    6. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Tziogkidis, Panagiotis, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and cross-hedging between gold, oil and equities: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 440-453.
    7. Das, Suman & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2023. "Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    8. Sarwar, Suleman & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Awais & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "The importance of oil assets for portfolio optimization: The analysis of firm level stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 217-234.
    9. Akkoc, Ugur & Civcir, Irfan, 2019. "Dynamic linkages between strategic commodities and stock market in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR-DCC-GARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-239.
    10. Urom, Christian & Anochiwa, Lasbrey & Yuni, Denis & Idume, Gabriel, 2019. "Asymmetric linkages among precious metals, global equity and bond yields: The role of volatility and business cycle factors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: volatility spillovers and implications for portfolio management," MPRA Paper 87637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hedging functionality of Chinese financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Ashfaq, Saleha & Tang, Yong & Maqbool, Rashid, 2019. "Volatility spillover impact of world oil prices on leading Asian energy exporting and importing economies’ stock returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Fengming Qin & Junru Zhang & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2018. "RMB Exchange Rates and Volatility Spillover across Financial Markets in China and Japan," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, October.
    15. Jiang, Yonghong & Jiang, Cheng & Nie, He & Mo, Bin, 2019. "The time-varying linkages between global oil market and China's commodity sectors: Evidence from DCC-GJR-GARCH analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 577-586.
    16. Klein, Tony & Hien, Pham Thu & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin Is Not the New Gold: A Comparison of Volatility, Correlation, and Portfolio Performance," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/01, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    17. Jiang, Yonghong & Fu, Yuyuan & Ruan, Weihua, 2019. "Risk spillovers and portfolio management between precious metal and BRICS stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    18. Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez & Juan David González-Ruiz & Sergio Botero Botero, 2022. "Dynamic Co-Movements among Oil Prices and Financial Assets: A Scientometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Liu, Zhenhua & Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Ding, Zhihua, 2020. "Implied volatility relationships between crude oil and the U.S. stock markets: Dynamic correlation and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony & Khalid, Ali, 2019. "The impact of oil price uncertainty on GCC stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3389-:d:171598. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.