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Oil Price Uncertainty and Sectoral Stock Returns in China: A Time-Varying Approach

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Faek Menla Ali
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-varying impact of oil price uncertainty on stock prices in China using weekly data on ten sectoral indices over the period January 1997-Febraury 2014. The estimation of a bivariate VAR-GARCH-in-mean model suggests that oil price volatility affects stock returns positively during periods characterised by demand-side shocks in all cases except the Consumer Services, Financials, and Oil and Gas sectors. The latter two sectors are found to exhibit a negative response to oil price uncertainty during periods with supply-side shocks instead. By contrast, the impact of oil price uncertainty appears to be insignificant during periods with precautionary demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Sectoral Stock Returns in China: A Time-Varying Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1394, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1394
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Oil price uncertainty; Sectoral stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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