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Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy

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  • Ozge Akinci
  • Olcay Yucel Culha
  • Umit Ozlale
  • Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu

Abstract

Foreign exchange rate interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies are studied only to a limited extent. However, due to the different characteristics of these economies, especially in terms of the exchange rate dynamics, such an analysis can reveal important information. This study analyzes both the causes and the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in the post-crisis period. We find that, as officially stated by the Central Bank, the main motivation behind the interventions is the excessive volatility in the exchange rate. Regarding the effectiveness of the interventions, the large and isolated purchase-based interventions seem to be effective in decreasing the volatility in the exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0505.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0505

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Keywords: Foreign Exchange Interventions; Emerging Markets; Probit Analysis; and GARCH Models;

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References

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  1. Fatum, Rasmus, 2000. "On the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 0010, European Central Bank.
  2. Michael McKenzie, 2004. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility: Some Australian Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 59-74, 03.
  3. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lewis, K., 1993. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related and Does it Really Matter," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-11, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  5. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  7. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  8. Michel Beine & Ariane Szafarz, 2003. "The design of effective Central Bank interventions: the yen/dollar case," Working Papers CEB 03-008.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
  11. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2002. "The determinants of foreign exchange intervention by central banks: evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 619-649, October.
  12. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  13. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
  14. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? the Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June.
  3. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
  4. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Asymmetric information content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return: new evidence from the post-crisis data using arma-egarch-m modeling," MPRA Paper 19631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Analyzing CBRT's FOREX interventions using EGARCH (2001-2006)," MPRA Paper 20634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1869, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Tolga Caskurlu & Mustafa C. Pinar & Aslihan Salih & Ferhan Salman, 2008. "Can Central Bank Interventions Affect the Exchange Rate Volatility? Multivariate GARCH Approach Using Constrained Nonlinear Programming," Working Papers 0806, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience," MPRA Paper 19598, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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