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Foreign exchange intervention and the Australian dollar: has it mattered?

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Author Info

  • Hali Edison

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • Paul Cashin

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • Hong Liang

    (Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Hong Kong)

Abstract

Since the Australian dollar was floated in December 1983, the Australian central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia) has actively intervened in the foreign exchange market. Using daily exchange rate and official intervention data from January 1984 to December 2001, this paper examines what effects, if any, foreign exchange operations by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have had on the level and volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. First, using an event study we evaluate the effectiveness of intervention by examining its direct effect on the level of the exchange rate. We find that over the period 1997-2001, the RBA has had some success in its intervention operations, by moderating the depreciating tendency of the Australian dollar. Second, we investigate the effects of RBA intervention policies on exchange rate volatility over the floating rate period. Our results indicate that intervention operations tend to be associated with an increase in exchange rate volatility, which suggests that official intervention may have added to market uncertainty. Overall, the effects of RBA intervention are quite modest on both the level and the volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.299
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 155-171

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:2:p:155-171

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Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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References

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  1. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10.
  3. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
  5. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
  6. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  7. Fatum, Rasmus, 2000. "On the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 0010, European Central Bank.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2002. "The determinants of foreign exchange intervention by central banks: evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 619-649, October.
  10. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
  3. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? the Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Andersen, Peter & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2011. "Intraday timing of AUD intervention by the Reserve Bank of Australia: Evidence from microstructural analyses," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 277-295, April.
  5. Kisukyabo Simwaka & Leslie Kwacha Mkandawire, 2004. "The Efficacy of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Malawi," Macroeconomics 0407022, EconWPA.
  6. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Intraday evidence of efficacy of 1991-2004 Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 341-360, October.
  7. Broto, Carmen, 2013. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 224-240.
  8. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan C. & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1869, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:134:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Cyril Minh Dao, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention by central banks bad news for debt markets?: A case of Reserve Bank of Australia's interventions 1986-2003," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 446-467, December.
  12. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  13. Simwaka, Kisu & Mkandawire, Leslie, 2010. "Official intervention in Foreign Exchange Market in Malawi: A comparison of GARCH and Equilibrium Exchange Rate approaches," MPRA Paper 23111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Simwaka, Kisu, 2006. "The effectiveness of official intervention in foreign exchange market in Malawi," MPRA Paper 1123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Are The Real Exchange Rate Indices of Australia Non-Stationary in the Presence of Structural Break?," Economics Working Papers wp07-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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