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The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy : A Post-Crisis Period Analysis

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Author Info

  • Ozge Akinci
  • Olcay Yucel Culha
  • Umit Ozlale
  • Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu

Abstract

This study has two purposes. First, it attempts to improve the literature on foreign exchange interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies, which have not been studied in details. The Turkish economy in the post-crisis period constitutes a good example in this context. Second, it proposes a new methodology, a time-varying parameter model, to analyze the effectiveness of the foreign exchange interventions. When the results from such an exercise are compared with the ones obtained from an event-study analysis, we find that the purchase-based interventions seem to be successful especially after the financial markets were stabilized. In that sense, we detect an asymmetry regarding the effectiveness of interventions. About the relationship between the interest rates and the exchange rates, we find that the uncovered interest rate parity condition operates in an unconventional way supporting the views put forth by the new emerging markets literature.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/discus/WP0506ENG.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0506.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0506

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Keywords: Foreign Exchange Interventions; Emerging Markets; Event Study and Time Varying Parameter Model;

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References

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  1. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Graciela Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoğlu, 2006. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions under a floating exchange rate regime for the Turkish economy: a post-crisis period analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1371-1388.
  4. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V Vance & Sellon, Gordon H, Jr, 1998. "Monetary Policy Actions, Intervention, and Exchange Rates: A Reexamination of the Empirical Relationships Using Federal Funds Rate Target Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 147-77, April.
  5. Zoe McLaren, 2002. "The Effectiveness Of Reserve Bank Of Australia Foreign Exchange Intervention," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 849, The University of Melbourne.
  6. Juann H. Hung, 1991. "Noise trading and the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Research Paper 9111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  8. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  9. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
  12. repec:wop:syecwp:9905 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
  14. repec:fth:sydnec:99-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoğlu, 2006. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions under a floating exchange rate regime for the Turkish economy: a post-crisis period analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1371-1388.
  2. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Analyzing CBRT's FOREX interventions using EGARCH (2001-2006)," MPRA Paper 20634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1869, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience," MPRA Paper 19598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Tolga Caskurlu & Mustafa C. Pinar & Aslihan Salih & Ferhan Salman, 2008. "Can Central Bank Interventions Affect the Exchange Rate Volatility? Multivariate GARCH Approach Using Constrained Nonlinear Programming," Working Papers 0806, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
  7. Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June.
  8. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Asymmetric information content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return: new evidence from the post-crisis data using arma-egarch-m modeling," MPRA Paper 19631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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