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Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?

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  • Fischer, Andreas M

Abstract

This paper argues that exchange rate tensions delay future changes in the Fed's policy instrument, the federal funds rate. A shift in emphasis towards the exchange rate may conflict with the longer-term policy goals for the domestic economy. The Paper's objective is to consider empirically the influence of exchange rate tensions (proxied by official interventions) on the duration of the target funds rate. Time deformation of the target funds rate is modelled as an autoregressive process following the class of ACD models first proposed by Engle and Russell (1998). The duration of the target funds rate is found to be weakly persistent: a result consistent with several studies in the empirical literature. The introduction of interventions into the ACD model finds that previous interventions lengthen the duration of the target funds rate. This result is found to be robust for several intervention measures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2479.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2479

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Keywords: Duration; Federal Funds Rate; Interest Rate Smoothing;

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References

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  1. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
  2. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Kaminsky, G.L. & Lewis, K.K., 1992. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-3, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  7. Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/05, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  9. Marvin Goodfriend, 1990. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  10. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
  11. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  12. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi & Leora Klapper, 1997. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," NBER Working Papers 5944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
  14. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  15. Michael W. Klein & Eric S. Rosengren, 1991. "Foreign exchange intervention as a signal of monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
  16. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "Does the Fed's new policy of immediate disclosure affect the market?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 77-88.
  17. Barro, Robert J., 1989. "Interest-rate targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, January.
  18. William Roberds, 1992. "What hath the Fed wrought? Interest rate smoothing in theory and practice," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jan, pages 12-24.
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Cited by:
  1. Fatima Sol Murta, 2007. "The Money Market Daily Session :an UHF-GARCH Model Applied to the Portuguese Case Before and After the Introduction Of the Minimum Reserve System of the Single Monetary Policy," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(3), pages 285-314.
  2. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art," MPRA Paper 1004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2006.

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