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Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?

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Author Info
Fischer, Andreas M

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Abstract

This paper argues that exchange rate tensions delay future changes in the Fed's policy instrument, the federal funds rate. A shift in emphasis towards the exchange rate may conflict with the longer-term policy goals for the domestic economy. The Paper's objective is to consider empirically the influence of exchange rate tensions (proxied by official interventions) on the duration of the target funds rate. Time deformation of the target funds rate is modelled as an autoregressive process following the class of ACD models first proposed by Engle and Russell (1998). The duration of the target funds rate is found to be weakly persistent: a result consistent with several studies in the empirical literature. The introduction of interventions into the ACD model finds that previous interventions lengthen the duration of the target funds rate. This result is found to be robust for several intervention measures.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2479.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2479

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Related research
Keywords: Duration; Federal Funds Rate; Interest Rate Smoothing;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael W. Klein & Eric S. Rosengren, 1991. "Foreign exchange intervention as a signal of monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Volker Wieland, . "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  9. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  10. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "Does the Fed's new policy of immediate disclosure affect the market?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 77-88. [Downloadable!]
  12. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi & Leora Klapper, 1997. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," NBER Working Papers 5944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. William Roberds, 1992. "What hath the Fed wrought? Interest rate smoothing in theory and practice," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jan, pages 12-24.
  14. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Barro, Robert J., 1989. "Interest-rate targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  18. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art," MPRA Paper 1004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
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