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Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates

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Author Info
Pierluigi Balduzzi
Giuseppe Bertola
Silverio Foresi
Leora Klapper

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Abstract

We find that in 1989-1996, when U.S. monetary policy tightly targeted overnight fed funds rates, the volatility and persistence of spreads between target and term fed funds levels were larger for longer-maturity loans. We show that such patterns are consistent with an expectational model where target revisions are infrequent and predictable. In our model, the (autoco-) variance of the spreads of term fed funds rates from the target increases with maturity because longer-term rates are more heavily influenced by persistent expectations of future target changes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5944.

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Date of creation: Feb 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5944

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Pennacchi, George G, 1996. "The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 426-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Melino, Angelo, 1988. " The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 335-66.
    Other versions:
  4. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Money Announcements, the Demand for Bank Reserves, and the Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate within the Statement Week," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 56-67, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-74, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Barro, Robert J., 1989. "Interest-rate targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    Other versions:
  10. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & George G. Pennacchi, 1996. "The behavior of interest rates implied by the term structure of Eurodollar future," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug, pages 426-451.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fischer, Andreas M, 2000. "Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ulrike Busch & Dieter Nautz, 2009. "Controllability and Persistence of Money Market Rates along the Yield Curve: Evidence from the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy execution and money market rates' volatility," Staff Reports 175, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lanne, Markku, 1999. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift," Research Discussion Papers 20/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eli M. Remolona & Joseph Dziwura & Irene Pedraza, 1995. "The short end of the forward convergence curve and asymmetric cat's tail convergence," Research Paper 9523, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks," Staff Reports 165, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate," Staff Reports 110, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Eric Jondeau & Franck Sédillot, 1999. "Forecasting French and German long-term rates using a rational expectations model," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 413-436, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2002. "The Overnight Interbank Market: Evidence from the G7 and the Euro Zone," CEPR Discussion Papers 3090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Emilio Barucci & Claudio Impenna & Roberto Reno, 2003. "The Italian Overnight Market: Microstructure Effects, the Martingale Hypothesis and the Payment System," CEIS Research Paper 24, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jääskelä, Jarkko & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Anticipated Monetary Policy and the Dynamic Behaviour of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Research Discussion Papers 12/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1998. "Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements," Research Working Paper 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  13. Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Vilmunen, Jouko, 1998. "Macroeconomic Effects of Looming Policy Shifts: Non-falsified Expectations and Peso Problems," Research Discussion Papers 13/1998, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  15. R. Spence Hilton & Alessandro Prati & Leonardo Bartolini, 2006. "Money Market Integration," IMF Working Papers 06/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs français et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Documents de Travail 55, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  17. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "China'S Official Rates And Bond Yields," Working Paper Series 2009-3, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Shu-ki Tsang, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in China?," Working Papers 192002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  19. Emilio Barucci & Claudio Impenna & Roberto Reno, 2003. "The Italian overnight market: microstructure effects, the martingale hypothesis and the payment system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 475, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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