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Federal Funds Rate Prediction

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Author Info
Sarno, Lucio
Thornton, Daniel L
Valente, Giorgio

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Abstract

We examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily US effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature. We find that: (i) most of the models and predictor variables considered produce satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate; (ii) the best forecasting model is a simple univariate model where the future FF rate is forecast using the current difference between the FF rate and its target; (iii) combining the forecasts from various models generally yields modest improvements on the best performing model. These results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4587.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4587

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Related research
Keywords: E47; federal fund rate; forecasting; nonlinearity; term structure;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  1. Peter Tillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 26, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. PeterTillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 53, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A dynamic factor analysis of the response of U. S. interest rates to news," Working Papers 2004-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. William R. Emmons & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-562. [Downloadable!]
  6. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Assessing monetary policy effects using daily federal funds futures contracts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 377-394. [Downloadable!]
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 13569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen & Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: An international comparison," Working Paper 2005/7, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2005. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers? Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-70, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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