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Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording

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Author Info
Friedrich Heinemann
Katrin Ullrich

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Abstract

In this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. We construct a wording indicator reflecting the "hawkishness" of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor-type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model’s fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 143 (2007)
Issue (Month): II (June)
Pages: 155-185
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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2007-ii-3

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Related research
Keywords: Taylor rule; wording; central bank communication;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2005. "The Importance of the Wording of the ECB," CEP Discussion Papers dp0694, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7, pages 1-34, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004. "Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jon Faust & Eric T. Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  5. Vitor Gaspar & Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Paper Series 069, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," KOF Working papers 06-125, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Federal funds rate prediction," Working Papers 2002-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees - different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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  13. Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 363, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fritz Breuss, 0002. "Was ECB's Monetary Policy Optimal?," WIFO Working Papers 173, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  16. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Rachel Reeves & Michael Sawicki, 2005. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," Discussion Papers 15, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  18. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  20. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2008. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Discussion Papers 2008-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Is a Word to the Wise Indeed Enough? ECB Statements and the Predictibility of Interest Rate Decisions," DNB Working Papers 075, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Explaining monetary policy in press conferences," Working Paper Series 767, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 47, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  10. Helge Berger & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Monetary policy in the media," Working Paper Series 679, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "The timing of central bank communication," Working Paper Series 565, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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