Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: An international comparison

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen

    ()
    (Norges Bank)

  • Andrea Zaghini

    (Banca d’Italia)

Abstract

The paper evaluates the ability of market participants to anticipate monetary policy decisions in the euro area and in 13 other countries. First, by looking at the magnitude and the volatility of the changes in the money market rates we show that the days of policy meetings are special days for financial markets. Second, we find that the predictability of the ECB’s monetary policy is fully comparable (and sometimes slightly better) to that of the FED and the Bank of England. Finally, an econometric analysis of the ability of market participants to incorporate in the current money rates the expected changes in the key policy rate shows that in the euro area policy decisions are anticipated well in advance.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/upload/import/publikasjoner/arbeidsnotater/pdf/arb-2005-07.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2005/7.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 02 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2005_07

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Email:
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; Predictability; Money market rates;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
  2. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November.
  3. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P.M., 2004. "How Transparent Are Central Banks?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 478-497, 09.
  5. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
  6. Selva Demiralp & Dennis Farley, 2003. "Declining required reserves, funds rate volatility, and open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter.
  8. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
  9. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Sager, Michael J. & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "The impact of European Central Bank Governing Council announcements on the foreign exchange market: a microstructural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1043-1051.
  11. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
  12. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 0192, European Central Bank.
  13. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2002. "Day-to-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 137-59, February.
  14. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Federal funds rate prediction," Working Papers 2002-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, 03.
  16. Vítor Gaspar & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Jorge Sicilia, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Papers 47, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  17. Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  18. Courtenay, Roger & Clare, Andrew, 2001. "What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  19. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Fabio Canova & Carlo Favero, 2005. "Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from 5 years of ECB and implications for Turkey," Economics Working Papers 922, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Brand, Claus & Buncic, Daniel & Turunen, Jarkko, 2006. "The impact of ECB monetary policy decisions and communication on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 0657, European Central Bank.
  3. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Silvio Colarossi & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "Gradualism, transparency and the improved operational framework: a look at the overnight volatility transmission," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 710, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Petra M. Geraats & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger & Carin A.B. van der Cruijsen, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," DNB Working Papers 085, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Sébastien Kraenzlin, 2007. "The characteristics and development of the Swiss franc repurchase agreement market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 241-261, June.
  7. Colarossi, Silvio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Gradualism, transparency and improved operational framework: A look at the overnight volatility transmission," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Canova, Fabio & Favero, Carlo A, 2005. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Lessons from Five Years of ECB and Implications for Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 5101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 47, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  11. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2005_07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.