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Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?

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  • El-Shagi, Makram
  • Jung, Alexander

Abstract

This paper examines whether the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have provided markets with additional information about the future course of monetary policy. The paper conducts an econometric approach based on an Ordered Probit model explaining future policy rate changes (sample 1998 to 2014), and the Vuong test for model selection, which helps to identify changes in the market assessment around the release of MPC minutes. Our results suggest that the Bank of England's published minutes of the MPC's deliberations have indeed helped markets in forming their expectations on future monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 222-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:222-234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.05.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Tadle, Raul Cruz, 2022. "FOMC minutes sentiments and their impact on financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Baranowski, Pawel & Bennani, Hamza & Doryń, Wirginia, 2021. "Do the ECB's introductory statements help predict monetary policy? Evidence from a tone analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
    4. Carlos Medel, 2018. "An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 128-152, August.
    5. Alexander Jung, 2018. "Have money and credit data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(1), pages 39-67, February.
    6. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Chappell, Henry W. & McGregor, Rob Roy, 2018. "Committee decision-making at Sweden's Riksbank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 120-133.
    8. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    9. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    10. Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "Monetary policy decision-making by committee: Why, when and how it can work," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-32.
    12. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis, 2019. "Efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre los títulos públicos: evidencia empírica para Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 38(77), pages 337-364, July.
    13. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
    14. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?," Working Paper Series 1961, European Central Bank.
    15. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    16. Jan Filacek & Lucie Kokesova Matejkova, 2022. "Disclosing Dissent in Monetary Policy Committees," Research and Policy Notes 2022/02, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Communication; MPC minutes; Monetary policy committee; Probit; Vuong test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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