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Do Federal Reserve Presidents Communicate with a Regional Bias?

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  • Bernd Hayo

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of U.S. monetary policy stance as expressed in speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials over the period January 1998 to September 2009. Econometrically, we use a probit model with regional and national macroeconomic variables to explain the content of these speeches. Our results are, first, that Fed governors and presidents follow a Taylor rule when expressing their opinions: a rise in inflation or the Leading Index makes a hawkish speech more likely. Second, when Fed presidents make a speech in their home district, its content is influenced by both regional and national macroeconomic variables, whereas speeches given outside the home district are influenced solely by national information. Third, the influence of regional variables increases during (i) Ben Bernanke’s tenure as Fed Chairman, (ii) recessions, and (iii) the financial crisis. Finally, speeches by nonvoting presidents reflect regional economic development to a greater extent than those by voting presidents.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/03-2011_hayo.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201103.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201103

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Related research

Keywords: Central Bank Communication; Disagreement; Federal Reserve; Monetary Policy; Regional Representation; Speeches;

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Citations

Blog mentions

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  1. What influences Fed presidents?
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-03-25 14:22:00
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Cited by:
  1. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2011. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement,Determinants, and Economic Effects," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201140, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB's decision rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 135-160.
  3. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2012. "Why Countries Matter for Monetary Policy Decision-Making in the ESCB," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/130369, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. A. Jung, 2013. "Policymakers’ Interest Rate Preferences: Recent Evidence for Three Monetary Policy Committees," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 150-197, September.
  5. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2013. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Working Paper Series 1579, European Central Bank.

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