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Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?

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  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Neuenkirch, Matthias

Abstract

We explain federal funds target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables and Federal Reserve communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that our communication indicators significantly explain target rate decisions and improve explanatory power in and out of sample. Second, speeches by members of the Board of Governors and regional presidents have a statistically significant and equal-sized effect, whereas the less-frequent monetary policy reports and congressional hearings are insignificant. Third, our findings are robust to variations in the specification, including changes in the communication strategy. Finally, our communication indicator based on Federal Reserve speeches performs better in explaining target rate decisions than do newswire reports of Fed communications.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1014-1024

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:1014-1024

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Related research

Keywords: Central bank communication Federal Reserve Bank Interest rate decision Monetary policy Federal funds target rate Taylor rule;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2013. "What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 125-145, February.
  2. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Dräger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2014. "Central Bank Communication in the Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Survey of Financial Market Participants," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201404, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  5. Florin Cornel DUMITER & Horatiu Florin SOIM, 2012. "Bank of England’s monetary policy committee – assessing the importance and the implication upon monetary policy," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 61-67, May.
  6. Andrei Sirchenko, 2011. "Policymakers' Votes and Predictability of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/05, European University Institute.
  7. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Federal Reserve Communications and Newswire Coverage," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201330, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  8. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Central Bank Forecasts as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  9. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2011. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement,Determinants, and Economic Effects," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201140, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  10. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier & Matthias Uhl, 2014. "Topics in Fiscal Policy: Evidence from a Representative Survey of the German Population," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201412, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  11. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2013. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Working Paper Series 1579, European Central Bank.
  12. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
  13. Paul Hubert, 2013. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC forecasts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  14. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Fender, Ingo & Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2786-2794.
  16. Bluhm, Marcel, 2011. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

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