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Does FOMC Communication Help Predicting Federal Funds Target Rate Changes?

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Author Info
Bernd Hayo () (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-University Marburg)
Matthias Neuenkirch () (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-University Marburg)

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Abstract

We explain changes in the federal funds target rate using macroeconomic variables and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that our communication indicators significantly explain target rate changes and improve explanatory power in and out of sample. Second, speeches by members of the Board of Governors and regional presidents have a statistically significant and equal-sized effect, whereas the less-frequent monetary policy reports and testimonies are insignificant. Third, our findings are robust to variations in the specification, including changes in the communication strategy as well as a measure of unambiguous communication. Finally, our communication indicator based on FOMC speeches performs better in explaining rate changes than do newswire reports of Fed communications.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/25-2009_hayo.pdf
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File Function: Second version, 2009
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200925.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200925

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Postal: Universit�tsstra�e 25, 35037 Marburg
Phone: 06421/28-1722
Fax: 06421/28-4858
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Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
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Related research
Keywords: Central Bank Communication; Federal Reserve Bank; Interest Rate Decision; Monetary Policy; Federal Funds Target Rate; Taylor Rule;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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    Other versions:
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  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 55-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
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