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On the information content of asymmetric FOMC policy statements: evidence from a Taylor-rule perspective

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Michael R. Pakko

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Abstract

Over the past two decades, the FOMC has included in its policy decisions a statement of bias toward subsequent tightening or easing of policy. This paper examines the predictive content of these statements in a Taylor-rule setting, finding that they convey information that is useful for forecasting changes in the federal funds rate target, even after controlling for policy responses to inflation and the output gap. Moreover, the evidence suggests that this asymmetry can be represented in terms of shifts to the parameters of the Taylor-rule equation, indicating a greater or lesser degree of responsiveness to incoming information about inflation and output.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-016.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Economic Inquiry, July 2005, 43(3), pp. 558-69
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-016

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Federal Open Market Committee;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Daniel Thornton & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "A history of the asymmetric policy directive," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The FOMC's balance-of-risks statement and market expectations of policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 37-50. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mehra, Yash P., 2001. "The bond rate and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 345-358. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Is a word to the wise indeed enough? ECB statements and the predictability of interest rate decisions," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 37, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "Does FOMC Communication Help Predicting Federal Funds Target Rate Changes?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200925, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
  4. Fischer, Andreas M & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2008. "Does FOMC News Increase Global FX Trading?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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