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Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication

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Author Info

  • Bernd Hayo

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    ()
    (Philipps-University Marburg)

Abstract

We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada (BOC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that communications, and most especially speeches and testimony by Canadian Governing Council members, provide a significant and robust explanation of Canadian target rate decisions. However, prior to the introduction of fixed announcement dates, Canadian communications contained more information on upcoming policy moves. Finally, communications by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank—which are much more frequent—outperform our Canadian communication indicators in explaining Canadian interest rate decisions.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/35-2009_hayo.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200935.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200935

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Related research

Keywords: Bank of Canada; Central Bank Communication; Federal Reserve Bank; Interest Rate Decision; Monetary Policy; Ordered Probit Model; Taylor Rule;

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Cited by:
  1. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2010. "Bank of Canada Communication, Media Coverage, and Financial Market Reactions," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201020, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.

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