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On the Information Content of Asymmetric FOMC Policy Statements: Evidence From a Taylor-Rule Perspective

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  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

For over two decades, the FOMC has included in its policy decisions a statement of bias toward subsequent tightening or easing of policy. This article examines the predictive content of these statements in a Taylor-rule setting, finding that they convey useful information for forecasting changes in the federal funds rate target, even after controlling for policy responses to inflation and the output gap. Moreover, the evidence suggests that this asymmetry can be represented in terms of shifts to the parameters of the Taylor-rule equation, indicating a greater or lesser degree of responsiveness to information about inflation and output. (JEL E52, E58) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 43 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 558-569

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:43:y:2005:i:3:p:558-569

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References

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  1. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  2. Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The FOMC's balance-of-risks statement and market expectations of policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 37-50.
  3. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Daniel Thornton & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "A history of the asymmetric policy directive," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 1-16.
  7. Mehra, Yash P., 2001. "The bond rate and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 345-358.
  8. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Paul Hubert, 2013. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC forecasts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Is a word to the wise indeed enough? ECB statements and the predictability of interest rate decisions," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 37, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Andreas M. Fischer & Angelo Ranaldo, 2008. "Does FOMC News Increase Global FX Trading?," Working Papers 2008-09, Swiss National Bank.
  5. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Central Bank Forecasts as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  6. Pisun Xu & Jian Yang, 2011. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 459-490, November.
  7. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  8. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.
  9. Marcel Bluhm, 2011. "Investigating the Monetary Policy of Central Banks with Assessment Indicators," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/20, Center for Financial Studies.

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