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Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording

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Author Info
Heinemann, Friedrich
Ullrich, Katrin

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Abstract

In this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB’s communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the “hawkishness” of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model’s fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators’ weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 05-70.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4553

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Related research
Keywords: Taylor rule wording central bank communication

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2005. "The Importance of the Wording of the ECB," CEP Discussion Papers dp0694, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vitor Gaspar & Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Paper Series 069, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Federal funds rate prediction," Working Papers 2002-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 363, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Heinemann, Friedrich & Huefner, Felix P., 2002. "Is the View from the Eurotower Purely European? : National Divergence and ECB Interest Rate Policy," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-69, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fritz Breuss, 0002. "Was ECB's Monetary Policy Optimal?," WIFO Working Papers 173, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & Jonathan Wright, 2004. "Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1246-1246. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  3. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Is a Word to the Wise Indeed Enough? ECB Statements and the Predictibility of Interest Rate Decisions," DNB Working Papers 075, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Explaining monetary policy in press conferences," Working Paper Series 767, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Helge Berger & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Monetary policy in the media," Working Paper Series 679, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "The timing of central bank communication," Working Paper Series 565, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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