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The Importance of the Wording of the ECB

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  • Carlo Rosa
  • Giovanni Verga

Abstract

This paper analyses the ECB communication, focusing in particular on its transparency dimension. We posit that if the ECB is transparent about its future policy decisions, then we should be able to forecast fairly well its future interest rate setting behaviour. We find that the predicting ability of the European monetary authority's words, is similar to the one implied by market-based measures of monetary policy expectations. Moreover, the ECB's wording provides complementary, rather than substitute, information with respect to economic and monetary variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0694.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0694

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Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

Related research

Keywords: ECB communication; transparency; monetary policy forecast; empirical reaction function; Euribor rate curve;

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Cited by:
  1. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2005. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-70, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2007. "Weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik flaut ab," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4139, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
  4. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.

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