Federal Funds Rate Prediction
AbstractWe examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily U.S. effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature. We find that: (1) most of the models and predictor variables considered produce satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate, (2) the best forecasting model is a simple univariate model where the future FF rate is forecast using the current difference between the FF rate and its target, and (3) combining the forecasts from various models generally yields modest improvements on the best performing model. These results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
Other versions of this item:
- Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giorgio Valente & Daniel Thornton & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Working Papers wp04-12, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Federal funds rate prediction," Working Papers 2002-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
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