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Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?

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Author Info
Petra Gerlach-Kristen
Abstract

It is shown that the voting record of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England helps predict future policy rate changes. This result is robust to the inclusion of market participants' expectations as measured by the slope of the term structure of money market rates and interest rate futures. Moreover, expectations seem to adjust to the information contained in the voting record, which suggests that publishing the minutes of MPC meetings increases the transparency of monetary policy. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 2004 .

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 106 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 299-313
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:106:y:2004:i:2:p:299-313

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  2. Petra M. Geraats & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinnger & Carin A.B. van der Cruijsen, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," DNB Working Papers 085, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lavan Mahadeva, . "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2006. " Taking Personalities out of Monetary Policy Decision Making? Interactions, Heterogeneity and Committee Decisions in the Bank of England’s MPC," CDMA Working Paper Series 0612, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "How should central banks communicate?," Working Paper Series 557, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Stephen Hansen & Michael F. McMahon, 2008. "Delayed Doves: MPC Voting Behaviour of Externals," CEP Discussion Papers dp0862, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2005. " Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The Case of the Bank of England’s MPC," CDMA Working Paper Series 0503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2008. "The Role of the Chairman in Setting Monetary Policy: Individualistic vs. Autocratically Collegial MPCs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 119-143, September. [Downloadable!]
  10. Geraats, P.M, 2005. "Transparency of Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0549, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ana Lasaosa, . "Learning the rules of the new game? Comparing the reactions in financial markets to announcements before and after the Bank of England's operational independence," Bank of England working papers 255, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  12. Petra Geraats, 2009. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2005. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers? Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-70, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Daniel Seidmann, 2006. "A Theory of Voting Patterns and Performance in Private and Public Committees," Discussion Papers 2006-07, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham. [Downloadable!]
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