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Federal Funds Rate Prediction

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Author Info
Sarno, Lucio (University of Warwick)
Daniel l Thornton
Giorgio Valente

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Abstract

Recent research has reported that both the federal funds rate futures market and the federal funds target contain valuable information for explaining the behavior of the US effective federal funds rate. A parallel literature on interest rate modelling has recorded evidence that the dynamics of interest rates displays significant regime-switching behavior. In this paper we produce out of sample forecasts of the federal funds rate at horizons up to 8 weeks ahead using linear and nonlinear, regime-switching equilibrium correction models of the funds rate and employing both point and density measures of forecast accuracy. We cannot discriminate among the models considered in terms of point forecast accuracy. However, in terms of density forecast accuracy, we find that the term structure model of the federal funds futures rate is significantly better than the other models considered, and that regime-switching models provide a substantial forecasting improvement relative to their linear counterparts and relative to individual series of the futures rate.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 183.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:183

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Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
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Related research
Keywords: federal funds rate; term structure of interest rates; forecasting; nonlinearity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. PeterTillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 53, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. William R. Emmons & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-562. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse27_2003, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 13569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A dynamic factor analysis of the response of U. S. interest rates to news," Working Papers 2004-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Assessing monetary policy effects using daily federal funds futures contracts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 377-394. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen & Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: An international comparison," Working Paper 2005/7, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2005. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers? Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-70, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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