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Nonstationary discrete choice

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  • Hu, Ling
  • Phillips, Peter C. B.

Abstract

This paper develops an asymptotic theory for time series discrete choice models with explanatory variables generated as integrated processes and with multiple choices and threshold parameters determining the choices. The theory extends recent work by Park and Phillips (2000) on binary choice models. As in this earlier work, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent and has a limit theory with multiple rates of convergence (n^{3/4} and n^{1/4}) and mixture normal distributions where the mixing variates depend on Brownian local time as well as Brownian motion. An extended arc sine limit law is given for the sample proportions of the various choices. The new limit law exhibits a wider range of potential behavior that depends on the values taken by the threshold parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 120 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 103-138

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:120:y:2004:i:1:p:103-138

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  1. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-61, January.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Nonstationary Density Estimation and Kernel Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1181, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2000. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1249-1280, September.
  8. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Nonstationary Discrete Choice," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1364, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21.
  2. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Nonstationary Discrete Choice," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1364, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2007. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 222007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Qiying Wang & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Asymptotic Theory for Local Time Density Estimation and Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1594, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. de Jong, Robert & Hu, Ling, 2011. "A note on nonlinear models with integrated regressors and convergence order results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 23-25, April.
  6. Marmer, Vadim, 2008. "Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and spurious forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 1-27, January.
  7. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2014. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Korea: An Ordered Probit Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  8. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Working Paper 0507, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sainan Jin & Ling Hu, 2005. "Nonstationary Discrete Choice: A Corrigendum and Addendum," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1516, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1173, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  13. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1804, CESifo Group Munich.

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