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Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach

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Author Info
Ling Hu (Dept. Economics, Yale University)
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation)

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Abstract

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behavior of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The empirical model is determined using the PIC criterion (Phillips and Ploberger, 1996; Phillips, 1996) as a model selection device. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1985-2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model-implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks and that the Fed is more conservative in raising interest rates than in lowering rates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1365.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2004), 19(17): 851-867
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1365

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Extended arc sine laws; Federal funds target rate; Interest rate; Monetary policy; Nonstationary discrete choice;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hu, Ling & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2004. "Nonstationary discrete choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 103-138, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Brian Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael Dueker, 1999. "Measuring monetary policy inertia in target Fed funds rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 3-10. [Downloadable!]
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  10. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Descriptive econometrics for non-stationary time series with empirical illustrations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 389-413. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Chang Sik Kim & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Log Periodogram Regression: The Nonstationary Case," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1587, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72. [Downloadable!]
  13. Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Local Whittle Estimation in Nonstationary and Unit Root Cases," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1266, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2000. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1249-1280, September.
    Other versions:
  16. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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