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The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures

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Author Info
Jegadeesh, Narasimhan
Pennacchi, George G
Abstract

This paper considers an equilibrium model of the term structure that is determined by two stochastic factors: a short-term interest rate and a target level to which the short rate is expected to revert. A Kalman filter technique that uses a time series, cross-section of Eurodollar futures prices is developed to estimate the parameters of the model. The term structures of spot LIBOR and Eurodollar futures volatility are compared to that predicted by the model. The empirical results indicate that the two-factor specification represents a significant improvement over its one-factor version. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 28 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 426-46
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:28:y:1996:i:3:p:426-46

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  1. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Two factors along the yield curve," Research Paper 9613, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. R.C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate-Futures Prices," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-045, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  4. C. N. V. Krishnan & Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2003. "On credit spread slopes and predicting bank risk," Working Paper 0314, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Carl Chiarella & Thuy-Duong Tô, 2006. "The Multifactor Nature of the Volatility of Futures Markets," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  7. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Pablo Villaplana, 2003. "Pricing Power Derivatives: A Two-Factor Jump-Diffusion Approach," Business Economics Working Papers wb031805, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi & Leora Klapper, 1997. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," NBER Working Papers 5944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Thuy-Duong To, 2005. "The Volatility Structure of the Fixed Income Market under the HJM Framework: A Nonlinear Filtering Approach," Research Paper Series 151, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rong Fan & Joseph Haubrich & Peter Ritchken & James Thomson, 2003. "Getting the Most Out of a Mandatory Subordinated Debt Requirement," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 149-179, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, . "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 02/03, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
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  16. SOLNIK, Bruno & COLLIN-DUFRESNE, Pierre, 2000. "On the term structure of default premia in the Swap and Libor markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 704, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
  17. Iichiro Uesugi & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2003. "On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate," Discussion papers 03013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  18. Brian Sack, 2002. "Extracting the expected path of monetary policy from futures rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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