On the relationship between exchange rates and equity returns: A new approach
AbstractThis paper employs a new approach in order to investigate the underlying relationship between stock markets and exchange rates. Current approaches suggest that the relative equity market performance of two countries is linked to their exchange rate. In contrast, this study proposes an alternative approach where one global variable â global equity market returns â is believed to have an effect on exchange rates, with the relative interest rate level of a currency determining the sign of the relationship. Our empirical findings suggest that exchange rates and global stock market returns are strongly linked. The value of currencies with higher interest rates is positively related with global equity returns, whereas the value of currencies with lower interest rates is negatively related with global equity returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
Volume (Year): 21 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin
Foreign exchange Exchange rates Stock returns Interest parity Risk premia;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Zapatero, Fernando, 1995. "Equilibrium asset prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 787-811, May.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2003.
"Exchange Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ajayi, Richard A & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "On the Dynamic Relation between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, Summer.
- Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
- Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003.
"Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets,"
2003/10, Norges Bank.
- Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
- Hoidal Bjonnes, Geir & Rime, Dagfinn, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 17, Institute for Financial Research.
- Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-23, January.
- Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2004.
"Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows and Exchange Rates?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
- Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 10476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Solnik, Bruno, 1987. " Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-49, March.
- Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009.
"Carry Trades and Currency Crashes,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boughton, James M., 1987. "Tests of the performance of reduced-form exchange rate models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 41-56, August.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
- Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994.
"A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
- Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 0529, European Central Bank.
- Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
- Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.