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Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?

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  • Camilo Serrano

    ()

  • Martin Hoesli

    ()

Abstract

This paper examines whether the predictability of securitized real estate returns differs from that of stock returns. It also provides a cross-country comparison of securitized real estate return predictability. In contrast to most of the literature on this issue, the analysis is not based on a multifactor asset pricing framework as such analyses may bias the results. We use a time series approach and thus create a level playing field to compare the predictability of the two asset classes. Forecasts are performed with ARMA and ARMA-EGARCH models and evaluated by comparing the entire empirical distributions of prediction errors, as well as with a trading strategy. The results, based on daily data for the 1990-2007 period, show that securitized real estate returns are generally more predictable than stock returns in countries with mature and well established REIT regimes. ARMA-EGARCH models are found to have portfolio outperformance potential even in the presence of transaction costs, with generally better results for securitized real estate than for stocks.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-008-9162-y
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 170-192

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:41:y:2010:i:2:p:170-192

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

Related research

Keywords: Predictability; Time series models; ARMA–EGARCH; REITs; Securitized real estate; C53; C22; G15;

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References

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  1. Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1997. "Serial Persistence in Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 183-214.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
  2. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.
  3. Pisun Xu & Jian Yang, 2011. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 459-490, November.
  4. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
  5. Schindler, Felix, 2009. "Long-term benefits from investing in international real estate," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-023, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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