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The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa

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  • Balazs Egert

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Abstract

This paper studies drivers of high-frequency (daily) dynamics of the South African rand vis-à-vis the dollar from January 2001 to July 2007. We find strong nonlinear effects of commodity prices, perceived country and emerging market risk premium and changes in the dollareuro exchange rate on changes in daily returns of the rand-dollar exchange rate. We also identify a one-sided nonlinear mean reversion to the long-term monetary equilibrium. In addition we establish very short-lived effects on the exchange rate of selected macroeconomic surprises and central bank communication aimed at talking up the rand.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp955.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp955.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-955

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Keywords: Exchange rate; nonlinearity; commodity prices; monetary model; macroeconomic news; central bank communication; South Africa;

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Cited by:
  1. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
  2. Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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