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Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

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Author Info
Gabriele Galati
Corrinne Ho

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Abstract

This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the USA and the euro area during the first two years of EMU. We examine whether market participants reacted to news in different ways depending on whether the news came from the USA or from the euro area, and whether the news was good or bad. Furthermore, we investigate whether traders' reaction to news has changed over time. We find that macroeconomic news has a statistically significant correlation with daily movements of the euro against the dollar. However, this relationship exhibits considerable time variation. There are indications of asymmetric response, but to different extents at different times. Our results also provide evidence that the market seemed to ignore good news and remain fixated on bad news from the euro area, as often claimed in market commentaries, but only for some time. Finally, we find evidence that the impact of macroeconomic news on the euro/dollar rate was stronger when news switches from good to bad or vice versa. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2003

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Article provided by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA in its journal Economic Notes.

Volume (Year): 32 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 371-398
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:32:y:2003:i:3:p:371-398

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  1. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Euro: Institutional Framework, News and Intervention," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juraj Stančík, 2007. "Determinants of Exchange-Rate Volatility: The Case of the New EU Members," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(9-10), pages 414-432, October. [Downloadable!]
  3. D. Jansen & J. de Haan, 2003. "Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 726, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Exchange rates and fundamentals - new evidence from real-time data," Working Paper Series 365, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Who Leads Financial Markets?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison, 2002. "ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the EURO: Institutional Framework, News, and Intervention," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 413-425, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? interest rate interdependence between the euro area and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 800, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Shaun K. Roache & Marco Rossi, 2009. "The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?," IMF Working Papers 09/140, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2006. "Dynamic News Effects in High Frequency Euro Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2006/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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