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The Indian Exchange Rate and Central Bank Action : A GARCH Analysis

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  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Sanchit Arora

Abstract

We study, with daily and monthly data sets, the impact of conventional monetary policy measures such as interest rates, intervention and other quantitative measures, and of Central Bank communication on exchange rate volatility. Since India has a managed float, we also test if the measures affect the level of the exchange rate. Using dummy variables in the best of an estimated family of GARCH models, we find forex market intervention to be the most effective of all the CB instruments evaluated for the period of analysis. We also find that CB communication has a large potential but was not effectively used.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 23016.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23016

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Keywords: exchange rate volatility; monetary policy; intervention; communication; GARCH;

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References

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  1. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "The timing of central bank communication," Working Paper Series 0565, European Central Bank.
  2. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 0363, European Central Bank.
  3. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0615, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  5. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective and Through Which Channel Does It Work?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
  7. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Saurabh Ghosh & Indranil Bhattacharyya, 2009. "Spread, volatility and monetary policy: empirical evidence from the Indian overnight money market," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 257-277.
  10. roman Horvath & Radovan Fiser, 2009. "Central Bank Communication and Exchange Rate Volatility: A GARCH Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp962, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches," Working Paper Series 0528, European Central Bank.
  12. Roberto Guimaraes & Cem Karacadag, 2005. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 68, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  13. Ashima Goyal & R Ayyappan Nair & Amaresh Samantaraya, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Forex Markets and Feedback Under Uncertainity in an Opening Economy," Working Papers id:2208, eSocialSciences.
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Cited by:
  1. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, 09.
  2. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
  3. Balazs Egert & Evžen Kocenda, 2013. "The Impact of Macro News and Central Bank Communication on Emerging European Forex Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4288, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Inoue, Takeshi, 2012. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate behaviour : empirical evidence for India," IDE Discussion Papers 353, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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