Central Bank Communication and Exchange Rate Volatility: A GARCH Analysis
AbstractWe examine the effects of the Czech National Bank communication, macroeconomic news and interest rate differential on exchange rate volatility using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Our results suggest that central bank communication has a calming effect on exchange rate volatility. The timing of central bank communication seems to matter, too, as financial markets respond more to the communication before the policy meetings than after them. Next, macroeconomic news releases are found to reduce exchange rate volatility, while interest rate differential seems to increase it.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp962.
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763 5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC
central bank communication; exchange rate; GARCH;
Other versions of this item:
- Radovan Fiser & Roman Horvath, 2010. "Central bank communication and exchange rate volatility: a GARCH analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 25-31.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-04-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2010-04-04 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2010-04-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-04-04 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2010-04-04 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008.
"Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence,"
DNB Working Papers
170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 0898, European Central Bank.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2007.
"The timing of central bank communication,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 124-145, March.
- Kateøina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíø, 2007.
"Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB,"
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver),
Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 540-557, December.
- Ales Bulir & Katerina SmÃdkovÃ¡, 2008. "Striving to Be "Clearly Open" and "Crystal Clear": Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," IMF Working Papers 08/84, International Monetary Fund.
- Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2005.
"Do currency markets absorb news quickly?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 197-217, March.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & McKenzie, Michael D. & Faff, Robert W., 2004. "Macroeconomic news announcements and the role of expectations: evidence for US bond, stock and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 217-232, July.
- Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
- Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012.
"The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis,"
Journal of Asian Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
- Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2010. "The Indian Exchange Rate and Central Bank Action : A GARCH Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23016, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2010. "The Indian exchange rate and central bank action: A GARCH analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2010-009, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
- Xinsheng Lu & Ying Zhou & Mingting Kou, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets," Working Papers 2013-01, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
- Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011.
"Central Bank Transparency and Financial Market Expectations: The Case of Emerging Markets,"
MAGKS Papers on Economics
201136, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurie Gendron).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.