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The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Xinsheng Lu

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Tongji University, China)

  • Ying Zhou

    (Department of Economics, Auckland University of Technology)

  • Mingting Kou

    (Business School, Datong University, China)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of unanticipated Australian monetary policy changes on AUD/USD exchange rate futures, 3-year and 10-year Australian Treasury bond futures, during the period from January 1997 to April 2010. Our study contributes to the literature by using both 30-day and 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB) rates to disentangle anticipated from surprise cash rate target changes in the Australian money market, and by concurrently modelling the effects of monetary surprises and other key macroeconomic announcements in Australia. The empirical results suggest that the 30-day BAB rate is served as the best proxy for the expected monetary policy actions. Further, the effect of Australian monetary surprises on volatility of all futures instruments is significant and complete when other key macroeconomic announcements are considered simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinsheng Lu & Ying Zhou & Mingting Kou, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets," Working Papers 2013-01, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:201301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy surprises; financial futures; asset return volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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