High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality
AbstractWe provide new evidence on the responsiveness of real interest rates and inflation to monetary shocks. Our identifying assumption is that the increase in the volatility of interest rate news in a 30-minute window surrounding scheduled Federal Reserve announcements arises from news about monetary policy. Real and nominal yields and forward rates at horizons out to 3 years move close to one-for-one at these times implying that changes in expected inflation are small. At longer horizons, the response of expected inflation grows. Accounting for "background noise" in interest rates is crucial in identifying the effects of monetary policy on interest rates, particularly at longer horizons. We use structural macroeconomic models to show that the impact of changes in real interest rates on output is small or the impact of changes in output on prices is small or both. Furthermore, our evidence points towards substantial inflation inertia.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19260.
Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Note: EFG ME
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-07-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-07-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-07-28 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-MST-2013-07-28 (Market Microstructure)
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