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Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy

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Fabio C. Bagliano
Carlo A. Favero

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Abstract

Exogenous measures of monetary policy shocks, directly derived from financial market information, are used in close (US) and open (US-Germany) economy VAR models to evaluate the robustness of the dynamic effect of monetary policy obtained from traditional identified VAR. The empirical analysis confirms the main features of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in US and Germany, explicitly addressing the issue of simultaneity between the German policy interest rate and the US dollar-DMark exchange rate.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 135.

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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:135

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allan D. Brunner, 1996. "Using measures of expectations to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock," International Finance Discussion Papers 537, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Franco, . "Measuring Monetary Policy in Open Economies," Working Papers 133, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Frank Smets, 1997. "Measuring monetary policy shocks in France, Germany and Italy: The role of the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 42, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  5. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1992. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  7. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright & Jon Faust, 2002. "Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high frequency data," Working Paper Series 167, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2003. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Bilateral Exchange Rate: Chile versus the United States," IMF Working Papers 03/71, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Igor MASTEN, 2002. "How Important Is the Shock-Absorbing Role of the Real Exchange Rate?," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/06, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," CEIS Research Paper 23, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2004. "Forward-Looking Information in VAR Models and the Price Puzzle," Working Papers 10, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. J.M. Berk, 2000. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 55, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Transmission in Italy: A VAR Analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2007. "Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 632, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2002. "Monetary Policy on the Road to EMU: The Dominance of External Constraints on Domestic Objectives," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 67-68, pages 13, Juillet-D. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bredin, Don & O’Reilly, Gerard, 2001. "An Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/01, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the effects of fiscal policy," Working Papers 07-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Bastos, Fabiano & Angelo Divino, Jose, 2009. "Exchange rate and output fluctuations in the small open economy of Mauritius," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5065, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2009. "How large are the effects of tax changes?," NBER Working Papers 15303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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