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The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data

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Author Info
Jonathan Kearns
Phil Manners

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Abstract

We investigate the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate using an event study with intraday data for four countries. Carefully selecting the sample periods ensures that the policy change is exogenous to the exchange rate. An unanticipated tightening of 25 basis points leads to a rapid appreciation of around 0.35 percent. We also show that the impact depends on how the surprise affects expectations of future monetary policy. If expectations of future policy are revised by the full amount of the surprise, then the impact on the exchange rate is larger (0.4 percent) than if the surprise only brings forward an anticipated change in policy (0.2 percent).

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2006:q:4:a:6

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 9660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Nicolas Parent & Phoebe Munro & Ron Parker, 2003. "An Evaluation of Fixed Announcement Dates," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2003(Autumn), pages 3-11. [Downloadable!]
  7. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 635-652, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David Archer & Andy Brookes & Michael Reddell, 1999. "A cash rate system for implementing monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March. [Downloadable!]
  11. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Futures Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Memorandum 26/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "Domestic or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200908, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
  3. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy," Memorandum 31/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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