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Monetary Policy News and Exchange Rate Responses: Do Only Surprises Matter?

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Author Info

  • Rasmus Fatum

    (School of Business, University of Alberta)

  • Barry Scholnick

    (School of Business, University of Alberta)

Abstract

This paper shows that exchange rates respond to only the surprise component of an actual US monetary policy change and that failure to disentangle the surprise component from the actual monetary policy change can lead to an underestimation of the impact of monetary policy, or even to a false acceptance of the hypothesis that monetary policy has no impact on exchange rates. This finding implies that there is a need for reexamining the empirical analyses of asset price responses to macro news that do not isolate the unexpected component of news from the expected element. In addition, we add to the debate on how quickly exchange rates respond to news by showing that the exchange rates under study absorb monetary policy surprises within the same day as the news are announced.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 05-14.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation:
Date of revision: Nov 2005
Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:05-14

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Keywords: expectations; monetary policy; federal funds futures; exchange rates;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison & Thomas Wu, 2010. "Asymmetries and state dependence: the impact of macro surprises on intraday exchange rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 49, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Rosa, Carlo, 2013. "Market efficiency broadcasted live: ECB code words and euro exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 167-178.
  3. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
  4. Fischer, Andreas M & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2008. "Does FOMC News Increase Global FX Trading?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu, 2011. "Monetary Policy Communication Under Inflation Targeting : Do Words Speak Louder Than Actions?," Working Papers 1118, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2013. "Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices," Working Paper 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Moura, Marcelo L. & Gaião, Rafael L., 2014. "Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 114-144.
  9. Carlo Rosa, 2013. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to monetary policy: understanding the empirical evidence," Staff Reports 598, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
  11. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
  12. Moura, Marcelo L. & Gaião, Rafael Ladeira, 2012. "Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the brazilian yield curve and expected inflation," Insper Working Papers wpe_288, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

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