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Monetary policy news and exchange rate responses: Do only surprises matter?

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  • Fatum, Rasmus
  • Scholnick, Barry

Abstract

We use data from the Federal Funds Futures market to show that exchange rates respond to only the surprise component of an actual US monetary policy change and we illustrate that failure to disentangle the surprise component from the actual monetary policy change can lead to an underestimation of the impact of monetary policy, or even to a false rejection of the hypothesis that monetary policy impacts exchange rates. Unlike the recent contributions to the literature on exchange rates and monetary policy news, our testing method avoids the imposition of assumptions regarding exchange rate market efficiency. We also add to the debate on how quickly exchange rates respond to news by showing that the exchange rates under study absorb monetary policy surprises within the same day as the news are announced.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1076-1086

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:1076-1086

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2013. "Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices," Working Paper 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Rosa, Carlo, 2013. "Market efficiency broadcasted live: ECB code words and euro exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 167-178.
  3. Andreas M. Fischer & Angelo Ranaldo, 2008. "Does FOMC News Increase Global FX Trading?," Working Papers 2008-09, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu, 2011. "Monetary Policy Communication Under Inflation Targeting : Do Words Speak Louder Than Actions?," Working Papers 1118, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  5. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison & Thomas Wu, 2010. "Asymmetries and state dependence: the impact of macro surprises on intraday exchange rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 49, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
  8. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
  9. Carlo Rosa, 2013. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to monetary policy: understanding the empirical evidence," Staff Reports 598, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Moura, Marcelo L. & Gaião, Rafael Ladeira, 2012. "Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the brazilian yield curve and expected inflation," Insper Working Papers wpe_288, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  11. Moura, Marcelo L. & Gaião, Rafael L., 2014. "Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 114-144.
  12. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.

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