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Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle

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  • Cosmin Ilut

Abstract

High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low interest rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered interest parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable expectational errors, negative skewness, and time-series momentum for currency speculation payoffs. (JEL D81, F31, G15)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 33-65

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:4:y:2012:i:3:p:33-65

Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.3.33
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  1. Tomasz Strzalecki, 2011. "Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 47-73, 01.
  2. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-72, June.
  4. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 217, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  6. Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  7. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 527, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Working Papers 102006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "New Evidence on the Puzzles: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 5, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Francois Gourio, 2008. "Disasters and Recoveries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 68-73, May.
  12. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
  13. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers wp05-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  14. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006.
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Cited by:
  1. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  2. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Working Papers 16491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Ockenfels, Peter & Wilde, Christian, 2014. "Measuring ambiguity aversion: A systematic experimental approach," SAFE Working Paper Series 55, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  5. Engel, Charles, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Economics Series 265, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  6. Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
  8. Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
  9. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Mauro Costantini & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp176, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  10. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Paper 2010/26, Norges Bank.
  11. Oscar Jorda, . "Carry Trade," Working Papers 1018, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  12. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process," IMF Working Papers 12/296, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Tarek A. Hassan & Rui C. Mano, 2014. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-currency World," NBER Working Papers 20294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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