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A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange volatility and jumps

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Abstract

This article reviews, evaluates, and links research that studies foreign exchange volatility reaction to macro announcements. Scheduled and unscheduled news typically raises volatility for about an hour and often causes price discontinuities or jumps. News contributes substantially to volatility but other factors contribute even more to periodic volatility. The same types of news that affect returns?payrolls, trade balance, and interest rate shocks?are also the most likely to affect volatility, and U.S. news tends to produce more volatility than foreign news. Recent research has linked news to volatility through the former?s effect on order flow. Empirical research has confirmed the predictions of microstructure theory on how volatility might depend on a number of factors: the precision of the information in the news, the state of the business cycle, and the heterogeneity of traders? beliefs.

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  • Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange volatility and jumps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Sep), pages 361-385.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2011:i:sep:p:361-385:n:v.93no.5
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    8. Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle & Palm, Franz C., 2016. "Testing for jumps in conditionally Gaussian ARMA–GARCH models, a robust approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 383-400.
    9. Walid Ben Omrane & Robert Welch & Xinyao Zhou, 2020. "The dynamic effect of macroeconomic news on the euro/US dollar exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 84-103, January.
    10. López Noria Gabriela & Bush Georgia, 2019. "Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility: the Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2019-12, Banco de México.
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    12. Smales, L.A., 2017. "Commodity market volatility in the presence of U.S. and Chinese macroeconomic news," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 15-27.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Munazza Jabeen & Abdul Rashid, 2022. "Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Exploring the Role of Order Flow," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 222-245, May.
    15. Munazza Jabeen & Abdul Rashid & Hajra Ihsan, 2022. "The news effects on exchange rate returns and volatility: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 745-769, January.
    16. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Public information arrival and investor reaction during a period of institutional change: An episode of early years of a newly independent central bank," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 727-753.
    17. Costas Karfakis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The effects of global monetary policy and Greek debt crisis on the dynamic conditional correlations of currency markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 795-811, November.
    18. Costas Karfakis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2014. "The effects of global monetary policy and Greek debt crisis on the dynamic conditional correlations of currency markets," Discussion Paper Series 2014_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2014.
    19. Naoshi Tsuchida & Toshiaki Watanabe & Toshinao Yoshiba, 2016. "The Intraday Market Liquidity of Japanese Government Bond Futures," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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    21. Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaşer, Tanseli, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-143.
    22. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, November.

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